A German economist whose statistical model has correctly predicted every World Cup winner since 2014 is backing the Netherlands to lift the trophy in July 2026 — and the pressure of that unblemished record is starting to weigh on him.

Joachim Klement, a strategist at investment bank Panmure Liberum who has lived in the United Kingdom for a decade, first built his forecast model as a deliberate act of self-deprecation. He wanted to expose the arrogance of economists who believe they can predict the unpredictable.